A new psychology study suggests that our day-to-day psychological needs and our belief in conspiracy theories may be more closely connected than many people think. Instead of being fixed traits, both seem to move over time and they may push and pull on each other.
Researchers from the University of Basel, the University of Kent and several partner universities followed adults in New Zealand for three years. Their work, published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, found that people who felt less control and less belonging were more likely to endorse conspiracy ideas, both on average and later on.
This matters because conspiracy beliefs are not just abstract opinions. They can shape voting, health decisions and how safe people feel around others. Understanding why these beliefs grow or fade can help us see what is going on under the surface in times of crisis, social change, or personal stress.
What the researchers wanted to find out
The research team wanted to test a simple but powerful idea. Do changes in our basic psychological needs predict later changes in conspiracy beliefs? Or is it the other way around? Earlier studies often looked at people only once, which made it hard to tell what comes first.
They focused on four key needs. The first was a sense of control, the feeling that you can influence your life. The second was a sense of belonging, which is about feeling accepted and connected to others. The third was self-esteem, or how positively you see yourself. The fourth was meaning in life, the sense that your life has purpose and makes sense.
Previous theories had suggested that people might turn to conspiracy stories when these needs felt blocked. If the world seems chaotic, unfair, or hostile, it can be tempting to believe that powerful groups are secretly pulling the strings. The new study set out to test this claim with a strong, long-term design instead of a single survey.
Importantly, the team did not just want to know whether people with low need satisfaction tend to believe more conspiracies. They also wanted to see whether year-to-year changes in needs within the same person predicted their own future beliefs. That is a much tougher test and helps show whether shifts in inner life may open the door to “hidden truth” narratives.
How the long-term New Zealand survey worked
To answer these questions, the researchers drew on data from the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study, a large ongoing project that tracks adults across many years. In this project, people complete regular surveys about their beliefs, feelings and social attitudes.
For this particular analysis, participants filled out questionnaires once a year from 2019 to 2022. They rated how much they felt their needs for control, belonging, self-esteem and meaning were being met. They also indicated how strongly they agreed with a statement that captured a general conspiracy mindset, such as the idea that important information is being hidden from the public.
Instead of treating each survey as a fresh sample, the team used a statistical approach that separated long-term tendencies from short-term changes. In simple terms, they could see both who was usually low in need satisfaction and also when a person dipped below or rose above their own usual level from one year to the next.
The authors reported their results in a peer‑reviewed journal article. By tracing the same people over three years, they could check whether changes in psychological needs tended to come before later changes in conspiracy beliefs, or whether the pattern went the other way.
Chronic low control and belonging tied to stronger conspiracy beliefs
Across the three-year period, one pattern stood out. People who generally felt less satisfied in their needs, especially in their sense of control and sense of belonging, were more likely to endorse conspiracy theories overall. That was true even after taking into account stable personality differences.
This “chronic” pattern fits with earlier work suggesting that ongoing frustrations in life can feed a suspicious worldview. If you rarely feel in charge of what happens to you, it may feel easier to assume that secretive groups hold all the power. If you often feel excluded by society, you may be more open to communities that gather around alternative explanations of events.
Interestingly, these links were clearest for control and belonging. Self-esteem and meaning in life did show some connections in the long-term averages, but they were not as central. That suggests that feeling powerless and feeling alone may be key ingredients in a mindset that is ready to accept conspiracy narratives.
Year-to-year dips in control and belonging predicted later conspiracy belief
The study did not stop at these long-term links. It also asked what happens when someone’s needs change from one year to the next. The researchers found that when people experienced a temporary dip in control or belonging in one year, they showed slightly higher conspiracy belief the following year.
These effects were not huge, but they were consistent. They suggest that shifts in daily life, such as losing a job, going through a breakup, or feeling pushed out of a group, might nudge some people toward conspiracy thinking. In other words, it is not only who you are in general that matters. What happens to your sense of control and connection this year can also play a role in what you believe next year.
Why higher meaning in life sometimes went along with more conspiracy thinking
One of the most surprising findings involved meaning in life. The researchers expected that lower meaning would predict more conspiracy thinking, since feeling lost or confused can push people to search for simple explanations. Instead, they found a positive link. People who reported a rise in meaning in one year were more likely to report stronger conspiracy beliefs the year after.
This goes against a common idea that only unmet needs fuel conspiracy theories. It hints that, for some people, conspiracy beliefs themselves may provide a sense of meaning. If you feel that you “see” what others miss, or that you are part of a small group that knows the truth, life can feel more purposeful.
In that sense, conspiracy beliefs may act as a kind of psychological organizing story. They can tell you who the “bad guys” are, who the heroes are and why things in the world feel off. That story may be frightening, but it can still bring structure. It might meet the need for meaning at the same time that it reflects other frustrations.
Consider: some people find purpose through art, family, or activism. Others may find it through “researching” suspicious events online and trading theories with like‑minded communities. The study suggests that when conspiracy beliefs become part of how someone makes sense of the world, they may also become woven into their sense of meaning and purpose.
Self-esteem showed weaker links to conspiracy beliefs
Self-esteem played a smaller role in this research. On average, people with lower self-esteem were somewhat more likely to endorse conspiracy theories. That fits the idea that feeling bad about yourself can make you more sensitive to threats or slights, which might blend into a suspicious view of powerful groups.
However, short-term changes in self-esteem did not clearly predict future conspiracy belief in the same way that control and belonging did. When people felt better or worse about themselves from one year to the next, this did not reliably change their later conspiracy scores. This suggests that self-esteem may not be a key driver of these beliefs. It might sit more in the background, rather than acting as a trigger.
What this research suggests about coping, purpose and “hidden truth” narratives
Put together, the findings point to a complex picture. Conspiracy beliefs are often painted as simply irrational. The new results suggest they may sometimes work as a coping mechanism when people feel powerless or cut off from others. At the same time, they can also become a source of purpose and identity for some individuals.
From a psychological point of view, conspiracy stories can offer three things at once. They can explain why bad things happen, they can point to a clear enemy and they can create a sense of community among those who “know the truth.” When your need for control or connection feels shaky, that package can be very tempting.
- They can make a chaotic world feel more ordered.
- They can turn confusion into clear blame.
- They can turn isolation into belonging in a special group.
Tip: if you notice yourself or someone close to you sliding into more extreme “hidden truth” ideas, it can be helpful to step back and ask gentle questions about stress, loneliness, or purpose, not only about facts. The study suggests that what people believe is often tied to how they feel about their lives and their place in the world.
Limits of the study and questions for future research
Like every study, this one has limits. The data came from New Zealand, which has its own culture, politics and history. People in other countries may show different patterns. The surveys were also taken once a year, so the research cannot see shorter‑term swings over weeks or months.
The design was observational. That means the researchers watched how things changed over time, but they did not directly change anyone’s level of control, belonging, or meaning. Because of that, the study cannot prove that low need satisfaction causes conspiracy beliefs, or that conspiracy beliefs cause later changes in needs. It can only point to strong and consistent links.
Future work could dig deeper into specific life events that shake control or belonging, such as pandemics, elections, or economic shocks. It could also test whether helping people feel more included and more in control might lower the pull of conspiracy narratives. For now, this study reminds us that behind every bold claim about “what is really going on,” there may be a very human story about needs, stress and the search for meaning.